{"id":386,"date":"2026-05-15T10:58:26","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T10:58:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/?p=386"},"modified":"2026-05-15T11:59:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T11:59:04","slug":"moneda-intelligence-monthly-news-wrap-up-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/15\/moneda-intelligence-monthly-news-wrap-up-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Moneda Intelligence Monthly News Wrap Up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
April 2026<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Energy<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Nigeria<\/em><\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

68 years after the commercial production of crude oil started, Nigeria has finally become a net exporter of petrol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What changed, when, and at what scale? <\/em><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

March 2026 marked a historic turning point in Nigeria\u2019s petroleum sector, as the country became a net exporter of petrol for the first time since commercial oil production began in 1958. For a nation long defined by crude oil exports and heavy petrol imports, this signals a major shift in the downstream petroleum sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decisive factor behind this turnaround was the Dangote Refinery. Since commencing operations in January 2024, the refinery has steadily ramped up utilisation, starting at roughly 54%, and is currently at 94% utilization according to NUPRC, with plans to increase its initial installed capacity by 115% by 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers explain the turning point. In March 2026, domestic consumption eased to 47.3 million litres per day (ML\/d) while output climbed to 48.2 ML\/d, sufficient to cover national demand. Of this volume, 34.2 ML\/d were supplied to the local market, allowing surplus volumes of 14 ML\/d flow into export channels and shifting Nigeria into net-exporter status. This means Nigeria\u2019s exporter status was driven not only by higher refining output, but also by softer domestic demand. To buttress this point, even as production ramped up, stronger demands during the festive season pushed monthly consumption well above the long-term average of 50 ML\/d, requiring larger volumes of imports to bridge the supply gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The timing is also strategically favorable as global refining markets are currently facing a supply squeeze due to the Isreal-US-Iran conflict, which has heightened risk around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20% of global oil and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) passes daily. The disruption along this route has had immediate implications for the availability of crude and refined petroleum, positioning Dangote refinery as one of the large-scale and reliable sources of refined products entering the market. This has strengthened Nigeria\u2019s ability not only to meet domestic demand, but also to participate more competitively in regional and international fuel trade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exports had already begun before March 2026, with shipments reaching African markets such as Cameroon, Ghana, Tanzania, Togo, C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, Angola, South Africa, and Mozambique, alongside cargoes to Asia in 2025. However, March 2026 was the first month exports were large enough to outweigh imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This highlights an important reality: Nigeria\u2019s new exporter status remains sensitive to domestic demand patterns. Periods of higher local consumption could narrow or temporarily eliminate surplus volumes available for export. However, planned capacity expansions at Dangote, alongside potential new output from modular refineries, would strengthen Nigeria\u2019s ability to sustain this position. It is also notable that Nigeria\u2019s three state-owned refineries remain largely non-operational. As a result, the country\u2019s downstream transformation is currently being driven by the private sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/em>https:\/\/guardian.ng\/news\/nigeria-becomes-net-gasoline-exporter\/ <\/a><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Fig 1: Average daily imports and exports of petrol, March 2025 – March 2026<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Source: NUPRC<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
*Average daily exports in 2025 could not be accurately established<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agriculture<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Ghana<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Ghana\u2019s cocoa product export earnings surged 93% to $1.659 billion from 2024 to 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our thoughts…<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

The latest report from the Ghana Export Promotion Authority shows that Ghana\u2019s cocoa product export earnings rose sharply in 2025 reaching record highs. This is however not a true reflection of the strength of the local industry as the surge was largely driven by unusually high global prices while the local industry records a consistent decline in export volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ghana\u2019s cocoa processing industry has continued to operate below capacity due to limited raw bean supply. Installed grinding and processing capacity stands at 504,780 MT, yet utilisation has remained below 50%, hovering around 210,000 MT over the past two seasons. To put it simply, the country has processing capacity that remains significantly underused because there are not enough cocoa beans to supply the processing facilities – a constraint that is deeply rooted in the structural challenges at farm level. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), declining orchard sizes, adverse weather, and swollen shoot disease have weighed on production, causing national output decline from over one million MT in the 2020\/21 season to approximately 530,873 MT in the 2023\/24 season. Output recovered modestly to 600,000 MT in the 2024\/25 season, a 13% increase, but still far below expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These supply disruptions have been a recurring theme across West Africa and have pushed demand from Europe and consequently, raised global cocoa prices to multi-decade highs. Ghana\u2019s good fortune in export value also benefitted from a concentration of supplies to Netherlands and United States which are significantly more profitable than others. The export value to those markets rose by 83% and 96.5% respectively while others shrunk by 12.6%. This good fortune is positive for short-term foreign exchange earnings and applies a band-aid to the 58.4% underutilization of processing capacity, 4.1% average decline of orchard sizes per year and 40% of its production potential that remains unreached. A dependence on windfall creates room for a looming shock and we strongly believe that the longer-term growth of Ghana\u2019s cocoa industry will depend on the restoration of the local production and processing capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/em>https:\/\/africanagribusiness.com\/ghana-cocoa-product-exports-jump-90-percent-yoy\/5708\/<\/a><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Fig 2: Ghana\u2019s cocoa product export revenue and export volume, 2020-2025<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Source: Ghana Export Promotion Authority, COCOBOD, USDA<\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

April 2026 Energy Nigeria 68 years after the commercial production of crude oil started, Nigeria has finally become a net exporter of petrol. What changed, when, and at what scale?  March 2026 marked a historic turning point in Nigeria\u2019s petroleum sector, as the country became a net exporter of petrol for the first time since […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,21],"tags":[27,40,64,63,17,19],"class_list":["post-386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","category-moneda-intelligence","tag-africa","tag-agriculture","tag-cocoa","tag-ghana","tag-nigeria","tag-oil-and-gas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=386"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/386\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":398,"href":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/386\/revisions\/398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/monedatreasuryblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}